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Old February 15th, 2018, 07:41 PM   #7
adouglas
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It really isn't a political decision. It's an economic one. It's a cost-benefit question and companies that successfully get first-mover advantage will gain significant market share. Public policy is simply an effort to accelerate market forces that are already in motion.

The Interstate highway system was a public works project (i.e. political) that had profound economic consequences. It caused a massive explosion of demand for cars and trucks after WWII. The industry would have grown, yes, but nowhere near the rate it did due to government infrastructure investment at Federal, State and local levels. Can you imagine not having asphalt roads in your town? Not being able to get easily to the next city? That's the way it used to be in many places.

As battery tech continues to improve and prices fall, people are going to gravitate to manufacturers who've already been developing their product.

It IS coming, and not just because of politics. There will be a tipping point when the cost/benefit ratio flips. There are just too many advantages for both manufacturer and consumer... MUCH simpler products, MUCH less maintenance. Hell, an e-bike's moving parts can just about be counted on the fingers of one hand. MUCH less impact on their immediate surroundings (and if you don't think this is important, I invite you to walk down a street in Manhattan sometime).

Whenever a new technology arrives, it looks like a dumb idea compared to well-established, mature technologies. Early cars weren't nearly as useful as horses. They were expensive, finicky, prone to failure, dependent on infrastructure that was practically nonexistent, required parts that were nearly impossible to find... sound familiar? That's where we are with electric vehicles today. Meanwhile, horses were well understood, well supported by services (vets, feed, tack, carriage builders, stables, breeders, etc.) Much like dino-fueled vehicles today.

What flipped the switch was the Model T. All of a sudden prices plummeted and it became more economically viable to own a car than horses. The rest is history.

Will electric drivetrains replace internal combustion the way cars and trucks replaced horses? I doubt it, because fossil-fueled cars are very good at certain things such as traveling long distances, rapid refueling, etc. But electric vehicles will have a significant market share because they're much better suited for certain purposes due to the aforementioned benefits. Urban use. Commuting. Things like that.
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