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Antibody testing is showing higher percentages of people had the virus in SF/LA as well. This is good information, and on balance, the good news means the upper bound of deaths due to this may come down significantly, for models that were using higher fatality #'s applied across the full population. But people probably shouldn't celebrate this too quickly either - the actual deaths aren't a measurement error. Calculating them (deaths) over an unknown denominator (people who catch COVID-19) seems better as that denominator gets larger, but it doesn't change the impact of what's happening right in front of us.
One of the key things to solve for is the level of protection the antibodies provide going forward. Is it unlikely for that individual to catch it again in a month? in 6 months? in 2 years? South Korea is seeing some of the same individuals who caught it, tested positive, then recovered - then later they tested positive again, and some had returning symptoms. Did they just never recover? Did they catch it again? How effective are the antibodies vs. the eventual vaccine trials?
All of this is dependent on getting testing cheap/available/quick everywhere.
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