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Old April 21st, 2020, 05:30 AM   #241
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I just put ours in savings for when I don't have a job. Which is probably likely coming up soon unless the economy is restarted.

Thankfully I may be able to just live off my wife. (bankruptcy lawyer) I remember how busy she was in 2008-9.

In Wisconsin the kids will not have school anymore this school grade. They will graduate from whatever grade they are in via online classes.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 05:38 AM   #242
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I just put ours in savings for when I don't have a job. Which is probably likely coming up soon unless the economy is restarted.

Thankfully I may be able to just live off my wife. (bankruptcy lawyer) I remember how busy she was in 2008-9.

In Wisconsin the kids will not have school anymore this school grade. They will graduate from whatever grade they are in via online classes.
You might have to start working for the wifey, i'm sure you would make a lovely assistant to help ease the work load.


As far as the stimulus check, i might have noticed a similar effect at Walmart the other day. Live in a fairly low populated rural county and have not had any problems at the Walmart 20 minutes away. Fairly stocked on everything but cleaning stuff and vanilla ice cream, never too busy. I swung by the other day to get some essentials and it was a little more crowded than normal, but i did notice lots of stuff was wiped out. People must have got those checks and used some of it for groceries is all i can figure. Either that or the supply and demand issues being seen in more populated areas finally caught up and is effecting us as well.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 07:47 AM   #243
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Ok, now it all makes sense.... We got ours too. I didn't think about the fact that was why all the stores around here were so busy and wiped out again.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 07:51 AM   #244
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Here in Ohio, the stimulus checks appear to have had an unintended effect. the first round hit bank accounts, and instead of paying their bills, people have swamped any retail store that's open. Passing by a Walmart parking lot on the way back from a job site the past few days has shown this. It's not about food either, grocery stores are at normal "stay at home" levels. So, now you have stores swamped with people. No way to do proper social distancing in that case.
All of our stores are limiting how many people are in the store. Home depot, lowes, walmart, Kroger, etc. Have lines outside with markers every 6 feet. They also made the doors one in and one out...employees are controlling the flow.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 07:55 AM   #245
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As of 1933 hrs PDT Monday, 4/20...

Washington today:
12238 cases
643 deaths
1567 recoveries

Ohio today:
12919 cases
509 deaths

WA has dropped to 15th place in positive tests and 12th place for deaths.

OH appears to be on the move: 14th place in positive tests and 15th place for deaths.

Keep up the social distancing, everyone!
This is due to all the prisoners being tested and the backlog is finally clear. We are 8 days straight of a decline.
We had an issue with a few nursing homes and state prisons. Over 1500 cases are medical workers.

Btw I do like you are keeping track.... Thank you.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 02:13 PM   #246
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All of our stores are limiting how many people are in the store. Home depot, lowes, walmart, Kroger, etc. Have lines outside with markers every 6 feet. They also made the doors one in and one out...employees are controlling the flow.
I had heard Home Depot was doing that. A friend got stuck in the line outside, said people were practically standing on top of each other to wait to get in. I thought Walmart was doing the same thing, but while the parking lot of this one was jam packed to the point where it could fit no more cars, there was no line outside.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 05:44 PM   #247
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I've seen a couple stores not doing this well at all. X number allowed inside... lines outside with 50 people 12" apart. I almost wanted to call the police and force these idiots to disperse.
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Old April 21st, 2020, 09:14 PM   #248
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we're doing ok here, outside Los Angeles. The stores are doing one-way aisles (not well enforced) and a single line for check-out. That last bit kind of works; no crowding at the front of the store.

Masks on most people. They sanitize each cart before anybody grabs it.

Today was our first day in a while that had double-digit new diagnoses. It's been single digits for a while, and no deaths for a week.

I loathe the distance thing. it leaves me fearing my fellow humans, and I'm one of those who chats casually with people everywhere , and you don't do that now. I'm doing the 6' apart thing, I just hate it. Also, apparently I read lips. A lot. Now I can't understand anybody that I'm trying to interact with.

Husband has been baking and cooking. It's nice that he's taking a hand in meal planning, the thing I hate most about cooking.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 09:14 AM   #249
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News out today, that 2 people in my county died of this on Feb 6 and Feb 17, quite a bit earlier than had previously been reported. This was confirmed with tissue samples from the autopsy. It does further support the reporting that was already out there that community spread was well underway in January.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 10:24 AM   #250
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No surprise. I think finding out when it got here is maybe less useful than finding out where it is now, and how much, and how to contain it. My friend posted a list of things that may be required for hairdressers to do when things reopen and it's nuts. If they need to do it all, it will be expensive, and a giant pain in the butt. Gown, gloves, mask, line the hairwash sink with a liner that will be thrown away, no walk-in clients, nobody in the waiting area, everything changed and cleaned between each and every client. I think a lot of industries will do similar protocols.

I can't wait to hear what we'll need to do in the theater.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 11:13 AM   #251
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No surprise. I think finding out when it got here is maybe less useful than finding out where it is now, and how much, and how to contain it.
I agree - but I think those are related concepts. The extent of asymptomatic transmission is likely one of the reasons that community spread is harder to manage and understand compared to other types of contagious diseases. Looking back to verify and track actual cases, compared to what public health was seeing and doing at that time for monitoring/containment, should be a learning we take on board for now and the future.

If we don't figure out where mistakes were made back then (and continue to be made now), it's not going to magically fix itself during our response.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 12:35 PM   #252
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I can't wait to hear what we'll need to do in the theater.
I think Theaters aren't going to survive this. I mean they were already dying with their $12 popcorn and $8 soda.

Movies will survive. They will come out with some way for people to watch 1st run theatrical releases in their homes. And people will be all for it with their monster 4K tv's, cheap popcorn cheap soda, and a pause button.

Stick a fork in theaters, they are done.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 03:23 PM   #253
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I think Theaters aren't going to survive this. I mean they were already dying with their $12 popcorn and $8 soda.

Movies will survive. They will come out with some way for people to watch 1st run theatrical releases in their homes. And people will be all for it with their monster 4K tv's, cheap popcorn cheap soda, and a pause button.

Stick a fork in theaters, they are done.
I think the drive-in will make a come back.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 04:56 PM   #254
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I'd actually like the drive-in to come back. I liked them.

Good point about tracking and finding past mistakes. Do it after we get the current problem under control, though.

I work in live theater- plays and concerts and the like. I hope that doesn't die. Perfect environment to spread the virus, though- roadies in a different place every day.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 05:10 PM   #255
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I think the drive-in will make a come back.
Sonic Drive in is very busy these days. Good Business Model.
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Old April 22nd, 2020, 06:12 PM   #256
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I think we will see a lot of the past come back... Cruising, drive-ins, hanging out outside in parking lots etc.. Not much else you can do cheap. Single income families may come back with no daycare being offered. Familys will take care of the older generation member's again...
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Old April 23rd, 2020, 10:31 AM   #257
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I think the drive-in will make a come back.
But I have a truck now. My friends can't hid in the back of that to get in like the old days!


Some interesting bit of virus news coming out. Antibody study in New York.

This finding pretty much changes everything. What it means is A LOT of people got the virus, nothing happened to them, they developed antibodies and recovered. The confirmed cases statistic just went out the window, and using it to calculate a mortality rate is done too. Actual death rate is mere fractions of a %.
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Old April 23rd, 2020, 11:38 AM   #258
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Antibody testing is showing higher percentages of people had the virus in SF/LA as well. This is good information, and on balance, the good news means the upper bound of deaths due to this may come down significantly, for models that were using higher fatality #'s applied across the full population. But people probably shouldn't celebrate this too quickly either - the actual deaths aren't a measurement error. Calculating them (deaths) over an unknown denominator (people who catch COVID-19) seems better as that denominator gets larger, but it doesn't change the impact of what's happening right in front of us.

One of the key things to solve for is the level of protection the antibodies provide going forward. Is it unlikely for that individual to catch it again in a month? in 6 months? in 2 years? South Korea is seeing some of the same individuals who caught it, tested positive, then recovered - then later they tested positive again, and some had returning symptoms. Did they just never recover? Did they catch it again? How effective are the antibodies vs. the eventual vaccine trials?

All of this is dependent on getting testing cheap/available/quick everywhere.
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Old April 23rd, 2020, 04:14 PM   #259
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Dayton Ohio is ramping up testing. An additional 300 a day for responders and people who show symptoms (no Dr. Note needed).
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Old April 24th, 2020, 04:56 PM   #260
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The antibody test is now available nationwide at Quest/LabCorp/Healthlabs/etc. It's a blood draw, with results back in 24 hrs showing if you have the antibodies for this. $169, but it looks like there's a 10% off with this link:

https://www.healthlabs.com/order?coupon=10offorder

We're going to hold off testing the family yet, as there's no real advantage to knowing that we are negative or positive for these antibodies while we're still homebound for the next few weeks anyway - it's more important for us to have the up-to-date information when that is actually going to change. A positive antibody result now doesn't change any of our allowable behavior, and a negative result now means we might have to take it again to see if we were exposed between now and whenever that point turns out to be. Once we know that things are ramping back to normal (kids going to camp/school, us going to the office at least occasionally, shopping, etc.), I think we could justify getting the tests then.

These are the antibody ("Did I ever have it?") tests, not the swab ("Do I have it right now?") tests. Health insurance might cover this, there is an ICD code for them:

Diagnosis (ICD): B97.89: Unspecified viral infection
Custom Order (SERUM COVID-19 IgG, IGM)
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Old April 24th, 2020, 05:34 PM   #261
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Evidently the stay-home restrictions in Spain have exemptions for pet-walking, and some folks have pushed the boundaries:



link to article
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Old April 25th, 2020, 07:04 AM   #262
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Old April 25th, 2020, 09:03 AM   #263
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The antibody test is now available nationwide at Quest/LabCorp/Healthlabs/etc. It's a blood draw, with results back in 24 hrs showing if you have the antibodies for this. $169, but it looks like there's a 10% off with this link:
I was talking to a guy at work. His entire family "caught a cold" at the same time. He really thought it was a cold. But you have to wonder. That's the kind of guy who should be all over this test.

I think I feel the same way though. My whole family is homebound also but when we are given the back to work order I might want to have it done.
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Old April 25th, 2020, 02:15 PM   #264
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Old April 25th, 2020, 05:52 PM   #265
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Good logic on waiting for the test. I feel the same. Do it later when it matters.
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Old April 27th, 2020, 06:07 AM   #266
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Well the odds finally fought up to my place of employment. We are an “essential “ workplace with around 200 employees. Up until now no one has tested positive. Sunday the company informs us that an employee reported to HR that they are presumptive positive and that the plant will be shutdown for cleaning/ sanitation. We will return to work tomorrow and work Saturday to makeup for production lost in n Monday. WOW!
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Old April 27th, 2020, 10:36 AM   #267
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Well the odds finally fought up to my place of employment. We are an “essential “ workplace with around 200 employees. Up until now no one has tested positive. Sunday the company informs us that an employee reported to HR that they are presumptive positive and that the plant will be shutdown for cleaning/ sanitation. We will return to work tomorrow and work Saturday to makeup for production lost in n Monday. WOW!
So, for the guy who was positive, did your employer do contact tracing and make the people who where in contact with the positive person continue to stay home?

They say hardline contact tracing is the only way to stop the spread. If they let everyone back except for the one infected showing symptoms, it's almost guaranteed everyone else there is going to get it and the place will end up being shut down for a month.
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Old April 27th, 2020, 11:00 AM   #268
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So, for the guy who was positive, did your employer do contact tracing and make the people who where in contact with the positive person continue to stay home?

They say hardline contact tracing is the only way to stop the spread. If they let everyone back except for the one infected showing symptoms, it's almost guaranteed everyone else there is going to get it and the place will end up being shut down for a month.
Yes everyone that was in contact with that employee will get tested and have to stay at home for 10 days. Fortunately I am not one of those persons that came into contact with the person.
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Old April 28th, 2020, 10:18 AM   #269
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I'm glad you're not in contact with the guy that got sick. I'm glad your company is doing contact tracing to get ahead of the infections.
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Old April 28th, 2020, 03:03 PM   #270
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Stuff here is alright so far. Working for a private company, they are working hard to keep everyone going. Working from home this week, but when I do go into the office, I am only around 3 others MAX. That is awesome. I am rather happy about still having a job. I do feel blessed.

Praying for anyone who has it rough.
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Old May 8th, 2020, 07:11 AM   #271
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I think there are 32 confirmed cases in my low populated rural county in PA. As of this week my county is still on lock down orders... seems a little ridiculous. There is next to no rational being used to make these decisions that effect thousands of people.

The lock down here is a joke, the only thing it is accomplishing is hurting small business and people that need to be working to get by. Is it helping prevent the potential spread of the virus? I find that unlikely. It just takes you a few minutes to go out driving around to see people flooding the big stores that were not forced to close and even the gas stations and local grocery stores ect... Now with that being said, there should be a reasonable number of employee's from these places getting sick which does not seem to be the case. If Walmart employee's can be around several hundreds of people each day and not get sick, small business can do the same and probably better.

I have never seen the local Walmart so busy, the new rules inside the store are only making things worse. I am not sure i have ever seen such congestion and long lines at check out ever before the new rules/guidelines where put into place, it's a joke. I also refuse to believe that your average person is being careful enough to avoid contracting/spreading the virus through their day to day routines while out and about. I myself having experience working in labs and in various BSL's find it next to impossible to do everything with 100% assurance i have not contaminated something, day to day living is just not setup to work that way.

I am not a conspiracy theorist nor do i think this was a hoax or some cleverly orchestrated government plan. I do believe the virus is real, and dangerous, yes. Is it more dangerous than the flu, not exactly, but dangerous for different reasons would be a better way of putting it. I do think this virus really exposed the hospital's inability to handle a rapid influx of patients all needing the same care.

I am willing to bet like others that as the antibody testing gets more common we will see a far greater number of people having had the virus and getting over it just fine without issue. This will obviously lower the mortality rate.

Do i think the lock downs were a bad idea... no, when dealing with an unknown that has the potential to be quite devastating it is most likely better to err on the side of caution than not. However as we gain more knowledge and data regarding the virus we are no longer dealing with an unknown, it is time to make rational decisions weighing the pro's and con's of each choice we make and how they will effect our lives present and future.
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Old May 8th, 2020, 03:49 PM   #272
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After working for several weeks through this pandemic as an essential employee, we had two employees test positive and one died. We are now temporarily layed off until the 18th. This is some very serious and scary stuff.
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Old May 9th, 2020, 08:35 AM   #273
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Damn that's horrible, sorry to hear.

Did the guy who died have underlying health issues like asthma or elderly something? Wait a long time before going to the hospital? I must admit every time I hear reports of a death I want more information even though it's really sad and hard for a lot of people.

If everyone in my family gets it, I will be the one who dies because of risk factors. I need to have a talk with my wife to make sure she doesn't take it too hard, accepts, and moves on with her life without mourning too long.
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Old May 9th, 2020, 12:42 PM   #274
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Sorry to hear that Snake, this madness has peaked and things are improving soon. Three counties in CA has reopened in opposition of SIP. I'm having track day @ Thunderhill in 2-weeks.

Well, my 101-yr old grandma in Montréal was diagnosed with it couple weeks ago. Caught it from nurse who visited weekly without wearing face-mask! When nurse showed symptoms, they tested everyone in home and quite a few had it with no symptoms whatsoever. Luckily gran doesn't have any underlying health issues and is recovering nicely.

There's cause and effect, with CV-19 making matters worse if you're already ill with something else. But it doesn't appear to kill you outright if you're in healthy shape (young folks and kids). However, what's throwing off stats is that hospitals are being encouraged to declare CV-19 as being "cause of death" with higher $-payouts. So if you had chronic-bronchitis and pneumonia then CV-19 pushes you over that last 5%, they would declare you died from it.

Recent studies in CA and NY appear to show much, much larger numbers of people being infected and recovering just fine without ever visiting hospital to be tested. So while death-count is known, denominator will increase at much faster rate. Of 650 000 that die each year from commom-cold/flu, it's estimated that 60-90 million are infected. Estimated because all 60-90 million don't actually go to hospital to get tested.

That's what is overwhelming our hospitals (outside of NY). Actually treating CV-19 is small load, less than traffic accidents, common cold/flu or cancer. But it's the testing that's so intensive. Due to mass hysteria whipped up by irresponsible media, everyone who just sneezes (from allergies or household dusting) ends up going to hospital to get tested. Or is reported to police by their neighbors.

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Old May 9th, 2020, 03:17 PM   #275
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While much of that sounds authoritative, I'm afraid too much of it is based on wishful speculation. Like you (and all of us, I imagine), I'm hopeful that things are improving soon as well. But if our individual and collective actions are driven by mob rule and political implications, in conflict with scientific realities, it seems unlikely that the outcome will be positive - let alone optimal. When epidemiologists are tasked with developing guidelines on what it will take to manage these outbreaks long-term, and those are discarded and hidden, the science doesn't change, only the outcome does.
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Old May 9th, 2020, 05:19 PM   #276
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Yeah, it’s unfortunate that it’s politicians who are making rules based not on what the science and numbers say. Our response was woefully inadequate and sluggish. Especially pathetic given realities pointed out by Jan-2019 Crimson Contagion exercise.

Personally I would’ve mandated this universally back in Jan. from what I saw in Hong Kong and Viet Nam. Interesting that Safeway reversed their position on forbidding employees from wearing face-masks after I called for boycott of their stores and send board a letter.



My wife is working on her PhD in Healthcare Admin and gets lots of good data from her advisors who are big-wigs @ Kaiser. Walking into Berkeley clinics and talking to staff will also give you lots of hands-on info.
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Old May 9th, 2020, 08:26 PM   #277
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@Zaph42 and @DannoXYZ thanks for your condolences. Yes, of the two employees that tested positive he had an underlying condition and the other is a physically fit former Marine that is recovering at home with what he is calling the worst cold he has ever had.

@Alex I fear a second wave because from what I saw at the memorial and what I see in public, less than half of the people are wearing masks. People are not heading the advice of the scientists.
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Old May 10th, 2020, 01:32 PM   #278
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My stimulus check went like my way too small monthly check... out quick as it came in.
Race season for PDRA May start back the end of March, I hope to get to go; i def need the money I’ve been missing not working
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Old May 11th, 2020, 06:01 AM   #279
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyBravo View Post
My stimulus check went like my way too small monthly check... out quick as it came in.
Race season for PDRA May start back the end of March, I hope to get to go; i def need the money I’ve been missing not working
I hear there may be more stimulus going out if Congress can figure out how to sneak in more unrelated pork projects.

Btw, the government (better known as we the people) are borrowing this money at zero percent interest. Just whom are we borrowing this money from and how are we supposed to pay it back?
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Old May 11th, 2020, 09:17 AM   #280
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It's more like an advance... We will pay it back some how.
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