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Old July 27th, 2016, 12:42 PM   #1
Omarel
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Live longer by riding a motorcycle? Cool Article

I found this interesting article. The way he breaks down the risk is insanely interesting. I'm not sure how accurate it is mathemtically.

What do you guys think?

http://tynan.com/motolife


Live Longer by Riding a Motorcycle (sort of)

"When I tell people I ride a motorcycle, they're either really excited (because they ride too), or horrified that I would take such careless risks with my life. Just how dangerous is motorcycle riding, though? Before I bought my first bike I did some research and came to the conclusion: not very.

Let's look at the data.

In 2006, there were 35 motorcycle deaths per 100 million miles of distance traveled by motorcyclist. That means that, on average, for me to die riding a motorcycle, I'd have to ride 2.8 million miles, assuming I'm an average rider. Last year I rode somewhere around 1000 miles, giving me a .035% chance of death.

That's a lot of riding, and not a lot of death.

But what about accidents? A non fatal accident is 30 times more likely to occur than a fatal accident. So every year I have a little worse than a 1% chance of getting into an accident. Again, that's extremely small. The range of accidents is very minor to very severe, so even that whole percent isn't really a big deal. Maybe .7% are accidents that would still be affecting me a month later.

Of motorcycle deaths in 2006, 28% of the riders were over the legal limit for alcohol. Twenty eight percent! That is HUGE. One third of them didn't have valid motorcycle licenses. A full forty two percent of all riders don't wear helmets. What does that all mean? The TYPE of person a motorcycle appeals to TENDS to be a risk taker.

Now, I take my fair share of risks, but this is a whole different magnitude. We're talking about people who ride motorcycles with no helmet, are drinking alcohol, and/or don't even have a motorcycle license. That's insane.

My guess is that a lot of the maneuvers performed which result in an accident are maneuvers that would only be performed by someone who falls into that category. I haven't been riding very long, but even in the year and a half I've been riding, I've seen people execute some oncoming-lane passes, extremely fast blind turns, and wheelies at highway speed.

I'm probably not the safest rider in the world. I'll split lanes if the cars are stopped, or going very slowly. I speed if there's a big empty road ahead of me with no scary looking turns. I'm also nowhere near the most dangerous, though. I always wear a helmet, always wear an armored jacket, I took a safety course and read the top rated motorcycle safety book, tend to take corners slowly, never drink, and am always extremely vigilant. Using some back of the napkin calculations, I'd guess that maybe I have a .5% per year chance of injury and a .0018% chance of death.

Just for fun, here's an interesting calculation. Let's say that I'm going to live to be 90, giving me 59 more years of sweet sweet life on this planet. If I die, I lose that time. Do the math, and every year the expected value of motorcycling is losing 9.3 hours of life.

But motorcycling also saves time. A lot of time. Parking is way easier, you can cut every single light (in California), you can cut lanes (in California), and you can go around obstacles like delivery trucks way easier. Motorcycles are also fast enough that you can take lefts as soon as the light turns green, as long as there's not a really fast looking car in the oncoming traffic lane. I'd say that in an average day, I save around five minutes going by motorcycle. I actually save more than that, especially due to parking, but I also don't ride every single day, so let's be conservative and call it five minutes.

Multiply it out and that's 30.5 hours that I save every year just by riding a motorcycle. Subtract the 9.3 hours that I'm losing (on average) by accepting a small chance of death, and I still get 21 hours of extra time every year. This equation gets better every year, too, because as I get older, I'm risking less future years of life and becoming a more experienced and hopefully safer rider. The time I'm getting is also "young time", time when I'm at my fittest and most productive, which is more valuable than the time when I'm, say, 90.

Overall this is a great trade...you could even say that I'm extending my life expectancy (in terms of actual hours spent constructively) versus not riding a motorcycle. And that doesn't even consider how much more fun riding a motorcycle is than driving a car."

Source: http://tynan.com/motolife
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Old July 27th, 2016, 01:12 PM   #2
VaFish
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I like the results of his calculations. Not sure of the accuracy.

But he does make a good point when people talk about the dangers of riding a motorcycle. There are some very simple things you can do to greatly reduce your risk of death and injury. Take a riders training class, wear a helmet, wear protective gear, ride sober, and ride sanely on public roads.
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Old July 27th, 2016, 02:23 PM   #3
CaliGrrl
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I'm like you- I wear a helmet and my gear, I don't drink when I'm riding, and I took the safety course. Not to mention that I ride to stay safe, very carefully.

I'll take my chances! People die in cars and in random happenings, too, but I'm not going to let it worry me.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 09:08 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliGrrl View Post
....
I'll take my chances! People die in cars and in random happenings, too, but I'm not going to let it worry me.
Had a guy around here a few years ago raking leaves in his front yard on a windy day. Branch fell out of a tree and hit him in the head and killed him.

Had a lady at our church fall down the stairs at her home, hit her head and died.

I'm not going to lock myself in a one level house to avoid all risk of dying.

Stuff happens.

But, you should do the things you can to minimize the major risks while still enjoying life.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 09:24 AM   #5
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Statistically speaking, you're much more likely to die on a bike than in a car. It's a simple fact that it's a lot easier to have a bad accident on a bike than in a car, with the falling over, lack of protection around you, etc. But there are huge ranges of risk for both. The riders who are most likely to die are the ones missing one or more of the mitigating factors mentioned in this thread: training/skills, gear, good decision-making, etc. Some might even say that people predisposed to those types of behavior are drawn to the thrill of riding, skewing the numbers even more.

Those same people are probably also at a higher risk of having car accidents. In a car, a bad decision is overall less likely to be fatal though; it's possible to simply tip over on a stopped bike and hit your unprotected head hard enough to kill you. No matter how drunk you are, it's pretty hard for your car to just tip over. If you do hit something, you've got a metal cage surrounding you, and probably a lot of safety features to minimize injuries.

The whole range of motorcycling is further up the danger scale than driving a car, but I'd say there's some overlap. The best riders are probably safer than the worst drivers. Being smart about riding will definitely improve your odds of avoiding death and injury. Remember, there are riders at the safe end of the spectrum averaging out the idiot squids killing themselves all over the place.

Everything in life is about risk vs. reward. Do what makes you happy, but don't be stupid. Where that line is for you personally is a decision only you can make.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 09:54 AM   #6
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Yep. Control what you can, recognize the risks of what we do, and call it a day. Thus- I took the safety course, and I wear my gear, as well as riding fairly conservatively.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 07:55 PM   #7
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Cool

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omarel View Post
......
What do you guys think?........
It is a good article.
Nevertheless, don't let it make you think that street motorcycling is not a risky and dangerous activity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...he_Hurt_Report

Riding many years without a serious accident is possible, as long as the rider is fully aware of the conditions, types of drivers and possible outcomes surrounding him/her.
Riders like that one, have a solid riding strategy, an open mind eager to learn from each ride and a tenacious desire to survive and to master the machine.

Please, see
https://www.ninjette.org/forums/showthread.php?t=205589

"Truly superior pilots are those who use their superior judgment to avoid those situations where they might have to use their superior skills." - Aviation quote

Ride much, ride smart, focus on what you're doing............. right now !!!
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