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Old July 23rd, 2017, 07:14 AM   #1
adouglas
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"Those who have, and those who will..."

I hear this all the time. Most recently this morning:

"There are two kinds of riders. Those who have crashed, and those who will."

I call b*llsh!t. I do not accept that crashing is inevitable.

Just my $0.02. Feel free to disagree.

Let's put this nonsense in context.

"There are two kinds of pedestrians. Those who have gotten hit by a car, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of swimmers. Those who have drowned, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of cooks. Those who have cut a fingertip off with a sharp knife, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of men. Those who have gotten a woman pregnant, and those who will."

Insane statements, right? Yet they use the exact same flawed logic.

Do I believe I will never crash? Of course not! Crashes happen. Believing you're immune is just as absurd as believing it's inevitable.

But I never get on the bike assuming that a crash WILL happen. That mindset makes it more likely to occur.
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Old July 23rd, 2017, 07:24 AM   #2
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I agree with you 100%. If you believe you will crash than it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Instead your mindset should be: "I will train and practice to try and prevent myself from crashing."
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Old July 23rd, 2017, 08:45 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adouglas View Post
I hear this all the time. Most recently this morning:

"There are two kinds of riders. Those who have crashed, and those who will."
5 years ago I was sitting around with 10 of my riding buddies. I said "sooner or later, every one of you is going down." It was not a popular statement and got mostly laughed off. The cockiest of those guys said he was too skilled to allow that to happen.

As of 2016, every single one of the guys in that group has gone down at least once. A few of them more than once.

It sucks being right. Ignorance isn't going to keep you upright. Sorry buddy but your time is coming too, and it has nothing to do with talking about it, expecting it, training for it or trying to avoid it. The best you can do is gear up and have good health insurance.

ps. I'll take the blame if you crash tomorrow.
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Old July 23rd, 2017, 09:48 AM   #4
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30 years of keeping the rubber side down so far.

I must be doing something right.... either that or I'm so lucky I shouldn't exist. I don't pretend to be "too skilled" or "too careful." I know full well I'm no expert. I simply do not accept the supposed inevitability of crashing.

I don't expect ignorance to keep me upright. And if I do crash tomorrow, I won't be surprised. As I said, crashes happen, and believing I won't is just as irrational as assuming I will.

PS: Have fun crossing the street.... because you WILL get hit by a car one of these days, right?
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Old July 23rd, 2017, 11:37 AM   #5
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Sooner or later, everything happens to you unless you get lucky enough to make it to old age first. BTW, I've been hit by a car already. Also got my wife preggo. Trojan Enz isn't enough to hold my load.

It's all odds. You gotta look at the odds of things in your list.

Chances of a profressional swimmer drowning - 1:2000
Chances of a pedestrian getting hit by a car - 1:8
Chances of a cook cutting off a fingertip - 1:2
Chances of getting a women preggo inn your life - 1:1.2
Chances of crashing your motorcycle - 1:1.01

Good for you if you are in the 1%! But you're probably still in the group who forgets to put their kickstand down or has a bike fall off a swingarm stand.

To summarize, you're going doooowwwwwwn.
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Old July 23rd, 2017, 03:27 PM   #6
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Crashing happens, I have saved a couple front end slides from gravel on the street, 15-20 MPH, any faster and I probably would have hit pavement. One crash on the street, front brake and side swiped by a deer causes problems. Ive lost track of the number of crashes on the track, but that is even more inevitable when you are chasing and racing on the limit.
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Old July 23rd, 2017, 11:22 PM   #7
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I've crashed in the bush, I've crashed on the track, I've crashed on the street.

Mostly when I was young and full of invincibility.

I'm much slower now and cautious to a fault, diesel spills, animals, cars, idiots are all out to get you even when you aren't going 10 10ths.

I remember falling of the bike once, it was on a stand in the garage and I was being a idiot with the kids, my mint 89 Slabside got all scuffed up, made the kids laugh but made me cry.
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Old July 24th, 2017, 03:01 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adouglas View Post
I hear this all the time. Most recently this morning:

"There are two kinds of riders. Those who have crashed, and those who will."

I call b*llsh!t. I do not accept that crashing is inevitable.

Just my $0.02. Feel free to disagree.

Let's put this nonsense in context.

"There are two kinds of pedestrians. Those who have gotten hit by a car, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of swimmers. Those who have drowned, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of cooks. Those who have cut a fingertip off with a sharp knife, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of men. Those who have gotten a woman pregnant, and those who will."

Insane statements, right? Yet they use the exact same flawed logic.

Do I believe I will never crash? Of course not! Crashes happen. Believing you're immune is just as absurd as believing it's inevitable.

But I never get on the bike assuming that a crash WILL happen. That mindset makes it more likely to occur.
Well, if the rain keeps up, it won't come down.

You're right though. There's a chance I could get hit by lightning and die. What are the chances? This is a question of statistics. If you're afraid of crashing don't leave the house - but then a gas line could explode. If you constantly live in fear you've stopped living. Just shoot yourself.

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Old July 25th, 2017, 10:49 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adouglas View Post
I hear this all the time. Most recently this morning:

"There are two kinds of riders. Those who have crashed, and those who will."

I call b*llsh!t. I do not accept that crashing is inevitable.

Just my $0.02. Feel free to disagree.

Let's put this nonsense in context.

"There are two kinds of pedestrians. Those who have gotten hit by a car, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of swimmers. Those who have drowned, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of cooks. Those who have cut a fingertip off with a sharp knife, and those who will."

"There are two kinds of men. Those who have gotten a woman pregnant, and those who will."

Insane statements, right? Yet they use the exact same flawed logic.

Do I believe I will never crash? Of course not! Crashes happen. Believing you're immune is just as absurd as believing it's inevitable.

But I never get on the bike assuming that a crash WILL happen. That mindset makes it more likely to occur.
Agree. Bugs me when people say that too, or when they say you aren't pushing it unless you go down. Crap. We had several riders at the last Superbike School run off the track. Keith Code himself sat them all down and gave them a stern talking too. He basically just said, "when you are riding on the street how many times do you just run off the road?" They all looked stunned and said, never (or rarely) and he was like, "So how come it's ok to do it here?" Just cause you are on the racetrack doesn't mean it's ok to run off the track or make stupid errors. It's a riding school. LOL. Priceless. Of course it's possible but saying that it is inevitable is dumb. Planning for it by wearing the right gear and learning the skills to try and avoid it is the best option but thinking that you're just going to crash sometime is silly.

Another thing that bugs me is when people do crash and they blow it off as something that just happens, no big deal etc. Actually it is a big deal and it's your chance to learn from your mistakes and figure out what you did wrong so that hopefully it doesn't ever happen again.

IF you do crash then dammit, take the time to figure out what you did, what went wrong, why it happened etc and how to improve your skills so that it doesn't happen again.

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Old July 25th, 2017, 11:24 AM   #10
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Thanks, Misti, for picking up on both ends of the issue.

When I have this conversation, quite often people hear "crashing is not inevitable" and respond to that, but tune out before "sure crashes happen and it could happen to me too."

I agree that yeah... it IS a big deal and a chance to learn. Hell, every single time I ride is a chance to learn. That's why I like riding so much; it engages my brain in all kinds of ways, all the time.
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Old July 25th, 2017, 12:07 PM   #11
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Thanks, Misti, for picking up on both ends of the issue.

When I have this conversation, quite often people hear "crashing is not inevitable" and respond to that, but tune out before "sure crashes happen and it could happen to me too."

I agree that yeah... it IS a big deal and a chance to learn. Hell, every single time I ride is a chance to learn. That's why I like riding so much; it engages my brain in all kinds of ways, all the time.
It also makes you a better, more defensive auto driver.

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Old July 25th, 2017, 12:50 PM   #12
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It also makes you a better, more defensive auto driver.

Bill
Something I've been doing more and more lately is actively thinking about, and practicing for, the track when I drive my car. There's a whole lot that can carry over to motorcycling if you drive in a mindful manner.

To name a few items: Shift timing, trail braking, brake timing (on and off) and pressure, throttle lift ("roll off") timing and degree, throttle application ("roll on") ditto, line selection, reference point selection, vision skill practice....

Some of it is stuff you might not ordinarily do during a daily drive (e.g. "rolling off"), but seen through the lens of riding practice I'm finding it to be a good opportunity.

Even commuting can become (a bit) more interesting if you try. You might have taken the same exit ramp two thousand times over the years, but do you really know where you come off the brakes? Do you do it in the same place every time? Stuff like that... focusing on what you're actually doing is instructive, I find.
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Old July 25th, 2017, 06:09 PM   #13
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Old July 26th, 2017, 09:30 AM   #14
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I've crashed 3 times and been hit once in my 35-yrs of riding. Although most of that was just basic commuting and I didn't push things to limit until this year on track. I think rider is in control 99.99% of time and is responsible for their crashing events.

So many people do stooopid things, partly because it's so darn easy to get licence in U.S. I really believe we should have tiered licencing system like in Europe and require EVERYONE, autos and bikes, to pass a skills test 100%. Things like minimum braking-distances from 60mph, swerving obstacle avoidance while maintaining lane-position and control, passing between two trucks without freaking out, etc....

Here's an example of why that saying exists.

Link to original page on YouTube.


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Old July 26th, 2017, 12:31 PM   #15
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I've crashed 3 times and been hit once in my 35-yrs of riding. Although most of that was just basic commuting and I didn't push things to limit on track until this year. I think rider is in control 99.99% of time and is responsible for their crashing events.

So many people do stooopid things, partly because it's so darn easy to get licence in U.S. I really believe we should have tiered licensing system like in Europe and require EVERYONE, autos and bikes, to pass a skills test 100%. Things like minimum braking-distances from 60mph, swerving obstacle avoidance while maintaining lane-position and control, passing between two trucks without freaking out, etc....

Here's an example of why that saying exists.

Link to original page on YouTube.

(video) - That's precisely why I don't play Kenny Roberts on public roads. I remember a story about a guy bipping along a country road on his Sportster with his main squeeze on back. They crested a blind knoll and guess what, there was a manure spreader directly on the other side traveling at about 5 M.P.H. The passenger survived - barely.

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Old July 26th, 2017, 04:15 PM   #16
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Ive crashed on the street more than once. Never groundlooped a taildragger though.
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Old July 26th, 2017, 04:18 PM   #17
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Ive crashed on the street more than once. Never groundlooped a taildragger though.
Well then, it's apparent that you have never flown a Sopwith Camel.

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Old July 27th, 2017, 07:31 AM   #18
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I've never groundlooped a taildragger, or landed with the gear up, both things that are subject to this same asinine "logic".

Haven't had a negligent discharge, that's another one.

These types of statements are stupid, and usually started by people who HAVE done the things. Probably in an attempt to make themselves feel better.

Almost forgot, haven't crashed a motorcycle either.
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Old July 27th, 2017, 09:52 AM   #19
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I've never groundlooped a taildragger, or landed with the gear up, both things that are subject to this same asinine "logic".

Haven't had a negligent discharge, that's another one.

These types of statements are stupid, and usually started by people who HAVE done the things. Probably in an attempt to make themselves feel better.

Almost forgot, haven't crashed a motorcycle either.
Will one of our members be kind enough to explain to an old fart what the hell "ground looping a tail dragger" means. I don't speak Oraganeese.

A "negligent discharge"? Better see a doctor. Whew!

Thanks,

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Old July 27th, 2017, 10:14 AM   #20
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Well, I've crashed once, so I can't say "never" anymore, but I'm hoping that's my only one and I'm good for the future now. I ride fairly conservatively, paying attention to things, working on doing it right. And my crash was entirely my fault, so that's fixable for the future.
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Old July 27th, 2017, 10:23 AM   #21
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Taildragger is an airplane that sits nose high on the ground and has a little wheel on the tail and the two main wheels upfront, like biplanes and Piper Cubs. They are prone to spinning out on the ground, thats called a groundloop.

At the airport, you'll hear the "those who have, and those who will" for groundloops and gear up landings. As well as divorces for the airline pilots.
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Old July 27th, 2017, 10:43 AM   #22
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Taildragger is an airplane that sits nose high on the ground and has a little wheel on the tail and the two main wheels upfront, like biplanes and Piper Cubs. They are prone to spinning out on the ground, thats called a groundloop.

At the airport, you'll hear the "those who have, and those who will" for groundloops and gear up landings. As well as divorces for the airline pilots.
Thanks Dave, I do speak Iowan. Has this website turned into "Air Classics" or something?

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Old July 31st, 2017, 08:03 AM   #23
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I don't know. I know a lot of people in their 50's and 60's that have never been in an accident. I don't think you can ride with the mentality that it's only a matter of when. You can't ride scared. You can ride respectfully. Knowing that it can happen but you'll do anything in your power to prevent it. I refuse to ride thinking about when it's going to happen to me. I ride with the mind set that as long as I'm defensive and do what I've been taught and what I've learned I'm putting myself in the best position to succeed every time out. Do not believe in those who have and those who will. That's a **** mentality spoken by people who have so they assume everyone else will too. My dad would kick my butt if he heard me riding with that state of mind and he raced and was damn good.

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Old July 31st, 2017, 09:39 AM   #24
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Kinda self-fulfilling prophecy huh? Like the riding tip of "Look where you want the bike to go!". Thinking there's a 100% chance I'm gonna crash, is certainly gonna cause it to happen!!!
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Old July 31st, 2017, 12:14 PM   #25
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Thats not how I see it at all. If I ride on the street, I know theres a chance of going down and a smaller chance of death. I accept that risk. It doesnt make me ride scared or worsen my chances of crashing.

Do you guys feel you need to consciously deny the risk in order to ride?

On the track, im sorta upset i havent crashed yet. It means im being overly conservative to a degree. Im sure a lot of you wont agree with my mindset but it works for me.
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Old July 31st, 2017, 01:09 PM   #26
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Thats not how I see it at all. If I ride on the street, I know theres a chance of going down and a smaller chance of death. I accept that risk. It doesnt make me ride scared or worsen my chances of crashing.

Do you guys feel you need to consciously deny the risk in order to ride?

On the track, im sorta upset i havent crashed yet. It means im being overly conservative to a degree. Im sure a lot of you wont agree with my mindset but it works for me.
Jeepers creepers guys, lighten up already. OK all you maudlin snowflkes listen up. 75% of all U.S. deaths are caused by:

- Heart disease
- Cancer
- Chronic lower respiratory disease
- Accidents 5.2%
- Alzheimer's disease
- Diabetes
- Influenza and pneumonia
- Kidney disease
- Suicide

If you sit around wringing your hands about your demise there will be little time left for living. Nobody gets off this blue marble alive.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the moments that take our breath away.

Besides, motorcycling is the most fun you can have with you clothes on.



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Old July 31st, 2017, 04:06 PM   #27
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Do you guys feel you need to consciously deny the risk in order to ride?
That's not it AT ALL.

If you read the OP through to the end, you'll find this:

Quote:
Do I believe I will never crash? Of course not! Crashes happen. Believing you're immune is just as absurd as believing it's inevitable.
That is in no way, shape or form denying the risk associated with riding.
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Old July 31st, 2017, 05:08 PM   #28
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That's not it AT ALL.

If you read the OP through to the end, you'll find this:



That is in no way, shape or form denying the risk associated with riding.
When you discover a way to remove all risk from life you're going to be a VERY rich man. Go for it. Meanwhile have fun - life's clock is ticking.

Don't misunderstand me. I don't you. If your position is to be careful I totally agree. Let's remove as much risk from riding as we can by improving our riding skills and maintaining our motorcycles to be safe modes of transportation. Sensible I would say.

Bill
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 01:47 AM   #29
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When you discover a way to remove all risk from life you're going to be a VERY rich man. Go for it. Meanwhile have fun - life's clock is ticking.

Don't misunderstand me. I don't you. If your position is to be careful I totally agree. Let's remove as much risk from riding as we can by improving our riding skills and maintaining our motorcycles to be safe modes of transportation. Sensible I would say.

Bill
If you removed all risk from life, would life be worth living, I think not.

Actually, I don't think it would be possible.

As long as you do a risk assessment you will have a good chance of avoiding a accident.

And for what its worth, we all do risk assessments in whatever we do subconsciously.

It's just sometimes, even with the best planning, **** happens.

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"
"Strategy is a system of expedients".
Helmuth von Moltke.

When your plan meets the real world, the real world wins. Nothing goes as planned. Errors pile up. Mistaken suppositions come back to bite you. The most brilliant plan loses touch with reality.

Smart man and brilliant strategist.
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 04:26 AM   #30
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As long as you do a risk assessment you will have a good chance of avoiding a accident.

And for what its worth, we all do risk assessments in whatever we do subconsciously.

It's just sometimes, even with the best planning, **** happens.
Yeah, that's it. Look down in my sig at the quote from csmith12.

I've been married 31 years. My wife still thinks I'm an adrenaline junkie. She doesn't understand -- never has, never will at this point.

I've known, and still know, a fair number of those folks. Deep in my gut, I know that I'm not one of them. I don't get off on being scared out of my gourd. I don't particularly enjoy taking it to the ultimate edge. To me, adrenaline is a warning that I'm pushing too hard, not a pleasurable rush that leaves me wanting more.

Do I do risky stuff? Sure, and it's not limited to riding (e.g. I used to be a whitewater kayaker). But always--always--it's about managing risk and keeping myself safe to have fun another day.

The risk is always acknowledged and met head-on, never denied, and the decision to take the risk in the first place is a deliberate one. The thinking is always "what if?" and preparing for the outcome if (not when... if) things go pear-shaped.

This is why I wear full leathers all the time -- something the overwhelming majority of riders do not do -- and use a neck brace. Soon upgrading to an airbag vest.

This is why, on group rides when people decide to go hooligan and start riding beyond what I deem reasonable, I give 'em a wave and go my own way.

This is why I go to the track -- to improve my skills and thereby, my ability to reduce risk on the street.

This is why, if my head's not in the game, I leave the bike at home and drive.

People think I'm crazy to ride a sportbike at my age. I think I'm a hell of a lot more level-headed and rational than many of the riders I meet.
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 12:29 PM   #31
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Risk assessment- yeah, I like that. That works. Lots of things are risky, but there's often ways to reduce and manage the risk. I'm a scuba diver, which can be risky if you're not careful. So we're careful when we go in the water.

I'm lucky in having found a riding club that doesn't have an awful lot of tolerance for hooliganism. A couple of the members make me a little nervous being too close to them, but a- I've learned who I *like* to be near, and stick near those riders, and b- they're still safe, just not the style I like.

I'm quite happy to be on a bike at my age. I think I'm a bit more settled than I would have been had I got a bike when I initially wanted to. Less impatient, more able to see the bigger picture developing in traffic, more able to stay out of trouble.
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 01:32 PM   #32
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Risk assessment- yeah, I like that. That works. Lots of things are risky, but there's often ways to reduce and manage the risk. I'm a scuba diver, which can be risky if you're not careful. So we're careful when we go in the water.

I'm lucky in having found a riding club that doesn't have an awful lot of tolerance for hooliganism. A couple of the members make me a little nervous being too close to them, but a- I've learned who I *like* to be near, and stick near those riders, and b- they're still safe, just not the style I like.

I'm quite happy to be on a bike at my age. I think I'm a bit more settled than I would have been had I got a bike when I initially wanted to. Less impatient, more able to see the bigger picture developing in traffic, more able to stay out of trouble.
I know you are comfortable with "lane splitting". I recently read some info, I can't remember where right now, where your chances of having an accident are much greater if you practice lane splitting. Please rethink your position on lane splitting.

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Old August 3rd, 2017, 03:12 PM   #33
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A lot of people split here during commute-heavy traffic periods. I don't, because since it's not legal it's not expected. Some jerk is bound to try moving over on you.

If it were legal and commonplace as it is in CA, I might... if the circumstances were right.
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 04:47 PM   #34
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Lane splitting can be relatively safe, or it can be horrifically danerous. If you let traffic settle down a bit before splitting, keep the speeds manageable (CHP recommends10-15 mph over traffic speeds, which seems reasonable), and keep your eyes open, it's not too bad. By the time traffic gets down to about 30 mph, the lanes are all full and very few people are changing lanes. I'd read an article that found splitting in stop-and-crawl was actually safer than being in the lanes, where you're likely to get squished by a driver not paying attention.

It's that thing where they're looking at their phone or the radio or whatever, and the look forward to see if there's a car there, and a bike doesn't register as something for which they need to stop. By splitting, I'm gone.
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 04:58 PM   #35
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Lane splitting can be relatively safe, or it can be horrifically danerous. If you let traffic settle down a bit before splitting, keep the speeds manageable (CHP recommends10-15 mph over traffic speeds, which seems reasonable), and keep your eyes open, it's not too bad. By the time traffic gets down to about 30 mph, the lanes are all full and very few people are changing lanes. I'd read an article that found splitting in stop-and-crawl was actually safer than being in the lanes, where you're likely to get squished by a driver not paying attention.

It's that thing where they're looking at their phone or the radio or whatever, and the look forward to see if there's a car there, and a bike doesn't register as something for which they need to stop. By splitting, I'm gone.
Just be careful! Oh, me, wut I gonna do now.

Bill
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 05:01 PM   #36
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Oh, I will be careful, thank you for your concern! My general rules for splitting are 1- wait until traffic settles in, 2- I split around 30-40mph when traffic is moving slower than that, and 3- always watchful.

http://newatlas.com/motorcycle-lane-...esearch/34425/

https://www.californiabiker.org/blog...plitting-safe/

Basically, don't be stupid about it. Mostly the advice is to not go too fast.
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Old August 3rd, 2017, 10:48 PM   #37
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I was fortunate enough to attend a presentation Michael Robertson did for my hang gliding club on Risk Management about 20 years ago. He developed "Robertson's Charts of Reliability" which provide a way to quantify the risks involved in hang gliding and paragliding. Essential, this takes into account several aspects such as the weather, the difficulty of the launch and landing, how you are feeling that day, etc. and gave each of them a numeric score. These were then combined to provide a single score for your risk on that day, allowing you to make your decision to fly based on empirical data rather than just your gut.

A recent article on Risk Management as it applies to Paragliding can be found at https://www.ushpa.org/page/risk-mana...-for-pg-pilots. I find these concepts apply equally to Motorcycling, SCUBA, sea kayaking, walking the dog, etc.
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Risk Management

We can't possibly be expected to understand and analyze every risk, so how can we manage risks that we don't even know exist. Fortunately managing unknown risks is no more complicated than accounting for the known risks. An engineer designing a building or airplane part analyzes the known risks, then accounts for possible unknown risks by adding a factor of safety. Depending on the consequences of failure and how well the risks are understood, this factor of safety is typically 2 to 5 times the calculated value. Because of the universal application of this concept in engineering, building collapses and catastrophic mechanical failures in aircraft are exceedingly rare. This same concept can be applied to piloting decisions.
...
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Old August 7th, 2017, 10:35 AM   #38
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A lot of people split here during commute-heavy traffic periods. I don't, because since it's not legal it's not expected. Some jerk is bound to try moving over on you.

If it were legal and commonplace as it is in CA, I might... if the circumstances were right.
I agree here. I don't do it because it would definitely catch people off guard and that alone could cause a bad accident. Also, yeah if the circumstances were right.
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Old August 7th, 2017, 12:03 PM   #39
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I think this is example of big-picture anyway, none of us are getting out of life alive! But do we go around all morose and dead with "why bother" ideas about doing anything? No, most of us accept the finality of life, but still mitigate short-term risks. Just wearing helmet and gear changes odds of dying dramatically. And driving assertively defensive will give us a lot of control in traffic.

Not sure if it's a NorCal vs. SoCal thing, I find traffic up here much more chaotic and dangerous. Lots of lifted pick-ups try to squeeze me when I split lanes. Never had that happen down south.
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Old August 7th, 2017, 02:37 PM   #40
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That was my experience 25 yrs ago. Bay area highways seemed narrower and curvier and not very friendly for lanesplitting.
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