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Old March 24th, 2020, 04:18 AM   #121
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Asymptomatic? I call bullshit. If that is true then why are they telling people if you do not have symptoms assume you do not have it and you do not need tested..
Of the 712 passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship who tested positive for coronavirus, nearly half were asymptomatic at the time of testing, according to the CDC
The same report indicates the virus was found on surfaces on the ship 17 days after no passengers remained

report here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e3_w
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Old March 24th, 2020, 04:27 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by Koala View Post
Of the 712 passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship who tested positive for coronavirus, nearly half were asymptomatic at the time of testing, according to the CDC
The same report indicates the virus was found on surfaces on the ship 17 days after no passengers remained

report here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e3_w
And yet they say it only lives for 3 days on some surfaces https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news...hours-surfaces
And
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...-coronaviruses
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Old March 24th, 2020, 06:40 AM   #123
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I have not looked at my detailed info on just about anything so i can't say anything for certain just wonder and speculate.

Some thoughts

What is the actual mortality rate? All we know for sure is fatalities in diagnosed individuals , and it doesn't seem like many people are getting tested unless they have severe symptoms and or have been in know direct contact with someone who tested positive.

How are they testing people for the virus? what are the false negative/false positive %s If they are testing for antibodies (most likely) how many different tests are they using? vs looking for viral RNA

My county still shows 0 cases on the PA website, but there is no doubt that it is here somewhere, and there is a chance it has been here for much longer than we realize as well.

Not saying we had the virus but just pointing out some holes in the testing/numbers.

My whole family had a virus run through the house and my kids small school starting on about the 9th of March, flu like and or corona virus like symptoms. All 6 members of my house had different symptoms and recoveries but we all definitely had the same thing. At that point there were only a few confirmed cases on the opposite coasts so it wouldn't make sense for us to get corona right?, but the thing is it doesn't have to make sense, any % chance no matter how small of the virus finding it's way here is still a chance. Either way, no way any of us would have got approved for testing. So if the virus does find its way into places that "don't make sense". it will go undetected until someone gets severe enough symptoms and gets approved for testing.

Other thought. The quarantine is great, lets slow transmission, i agree but again without testing everybody in the US routinely for weeks using the proper methods i find it hard to believe the virus is just going to disappear. So if everyone stays home, no one gets it and then all of a sudden in 3 weeks, 2 months whatever we come out of our holes, next to no one has built immunity it is only going to take a couple of still infected, non symptomatic individuals to start the whole **** show over again.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 07:15 AM   #124
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We don't test everyone for the flu, or Bloodbourne pathogens so why test everyone. It does not make sense, unless we test everyone for everything.

We will run out of supplies if we don't let people work. Crime will go up, suicide will go up, deaths will go up from lack of proper care due to running out of certain items. The risk of being home is starting to out weigh going out.
Filters for air systems, food that is gluten free, OTC meds, tires, cotton, are all items that are essential but will run out if we don't go back to work.
Again this is .0001% of 7.4 billion. And my .02.

Crime in our area is already going up...
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Old March 24th, 2020, 07:36 AM   #125
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obviously we can't test everyone, it doesn't make sense on many levels, but just pointing out that is the only way to rid a population of a viral/parasitic disease is rigorous testing of the entire population. It is obviously not feasible, therefore the infection will continue to seep through the cracks. Point being how long is this quarantine type stuff going to last? And if we all do great and go back to normal, the virus is still going to be around, then lots of people get infected again in a short period.

The trick is to control the transmission as much as possible which is the idea right now, we kinda actually need/want a certain amount of people to get infected but at a manageable rate for reasons mentioned above.

Honestly i wonder if best scenario would have been to be one of the first people infected. Get it early before hospitals are stressed, all eyes on you making sure you are good, develop immunity then nothing else to worry about for the next few months other than the economy.

Maybe Tom Hanks made a few calls to make this happen.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 07:54 AM   #126
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What about all the people who don't want to vaccinate their kids?
Bubonic plague still exists... So does the flu... It may never go away.
Good hygiene and proper cleaning and handling of products and food is the best defense. Not quarantine for the world over .0001%.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 08:58 AM   #127
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Not sure what you are getting at, never mentioned anything about vaccines in fact quite the opposite, people can do whatever they want just understand the consequences.

The Bubonic plague has next to nothing in common with an airborne respiratory virus. The flu is a loaded word, it's not just 1 particular virus, the "flu" commonly refers to several different strains, and as it appears now by the numbers typical "flu" is not even close to as deadly as this Coronavirus has showed. But like i mentioned early though, how accurate are the mortality rate stats of this virus, and how much are those numbers compounded by the sheer rapid spread of this virus?

People being cautious of transmission by washing hands ect... is the front line defense, super important but will never be 100% effective or even close, it's unrealistic especially with a virus that can be transmitted through the air. Expecting people to basically uphold BSL3 standards in day to day life is laughable.

Again like i mentioned before, once the virus spreads enough through the population and enough people have had it and built immunity it will most likely be no worse than the typical flu things will just proceed as normal if it sticks around or even mutates a bit it won't be as big of a deal. Right now the panic is all about controlling the spread as next to no one has immunity and hospitals can not handle 1000s of people requiring the same equipment, medications ect.. all at once in a short time frame.

I also think the government and people working with the government know that lots of people are not going to listen to what they have to say/put in place. That is factored into the plan. If the government would have said, well, everything stays open, try to limit leaving the house though and or contact with large groups, be super cautious about washing hands, ect... things should be ok. (which is most likely reality) Not many people are going to listen to that and just proceed as normal. But if the government says, everyone must stay in your damn house or else, they still expect people to no listen but more people will take it serious in turn getting the exposure/transmission rate closer to where they want it.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 09:11 AM   #128
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Uh-oh 1 confirmed case in my county now.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 10:18 AM   #129
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My point is they are over reacting. Not even 10% will require hospitalization. Telling people to wash and keeping kids in school could have been a benefit (They are further apart in a classroom than on the beach).

And.... If I was working I would not be consumed by all the BS and worried about losing my home, car, bike, medical benefits... Etc. And yes, bills won't be due for a while but the money will be owed and they will want it with interest at some point.

I NEED TO WORK.... NOT BE ON THE INTERNET
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Old March 24th, 2020, 11:16 AM   #130
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With "life as usual," a 10% kungflu hospitalization rate will overwhelm hospitals and other healthcare facilities in just a few weeks.

Italy provides a glimpse into the future if we do to little, too late.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 12:02 PM   #131
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Old March 24th, 2020, 12:14 PM   #132
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Italy does not compare correctly to the US.

Now they are talking about stopping liquor production and sales...
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Old March 24th, 2020, 01:25 PM   #133
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Uh-oh 1 confirmed case in my county now.
If you don’t have it in your parish / county it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:13 PM   #134
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The CDC report is from yesterday. Things change, new information is learned. I get it, your pissed. You have every right to be after just getting this new job and now you can't work. I know I'm lucky to be in a profession that is actually essential and working for a company that cares. Working for who I work for, I'm spending my time going into places where people have been sick, confirmed and unconfirmed cases, some that have died, along with the usual fire and water jobs. Multiple times a day spraying down the trucks we drive and the offices and the shop. I'm disinfecting places in my dreams for god's sake. However, this isn't going to go away quickly if people don't stay home that don't need to be out. Businesses are finding every loophole they can to stay open, while at the same time, not providing employees with what they need to stay safe. On top of that, Ohio has a large number of essential businesses. My area has seen little change from the order because it's mostly manufacturing plants, construction & trade companies, and hospitals around here.

I'm just venting, I'm stressed too. I'm in the middle, I think it's not as bad as it's been made out to be, but I think there is some to what's going on. Especially if they are thinking now that it can last on surfaces longer than a couple days.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:43 PM   #135
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Sunday.

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Old March 24th, 2020, 05:30 PM   #136
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Ohio today:
564 cases (up 27.6% since yesterday)
8 deaths (up 33.3% since yesterday)
0 recoveries (to date)
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Old March 24th, 2020, 05:37 PM   #137
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FYI...I work for the government...
I am hoping our "testing" resumes soon. But, we are Charlie and cannot go in.

Most companies around here are also essential. The CDC, they are the ones that recalled test kits. They don't always have accurate info. either.

When our Government tells us to stay home if we can. But, then tells us to go donate blood and go work at one of the essential companies if you can, I get frustrated. They contradict themselves, stay home but go out and get takeout to support local companies.... Don't work here, work there... And so on...

If I was at my place of work I would be a busy doing physical labor and working on a computer all day watching the news...
/rant...
I need to just stay away from this thread...lol.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 06:20 PM   #138
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@snot. I am not trying to be funny but you may have to practice some social distancing when it comes to this thread. Take a break and come back later. Hopefully things will have changed for the better by then.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 06:46 PM   #139
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@snot. I am not trying to be funny but you may have to practice some social distancing when it comes to this thread. Take a break and come back later. Hopefully things will have changed for the better by then.
I really need the rain to stop and the sun to come out so I can get out for a while....our bike path is underwater.

I like to play devil's advocate and question what we are told by government and/or media. School taught us to look for the facts and investigate resources and data... Especially when it is one sided and not all the info is given.
So bordom = rants....
But yes I will not post, just lurk in this thread for awhile.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 06:51 PM   #140
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Washington today:
2469 cases (up 11.2% since yesterday)
123 deaths (up 11.8% since yesterday)
19 recoveries (to date)

Woo hoo! Rate growth decrease!
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Old March 24th, 2020, 06:58 PM   #141
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+1 for some warm sunny weather! It has been raining every weekend here for the past two months. I need warm sunny weather to do my 3 favorite things: motorcycle riding, gardening (vegetables) and flying sailplanes.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 06:59 PM   #142
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Ohio today:
564 cases (up 27.6% since yesterday)
8 deaths (up 33.3% since yesterday)
0 recoveries (to date)
Ok, last one...

Yes I know it is 564 no matter how you do the math but...
They had a drive in test recently plus the test at other facilities. Now, some test take hours (Cleveland clinic get results fast due to in house lab), others days and some weeks. If all the test had the same lead time the rate would not jump as fast. Some that have died the test did not come back for several days, but we have the capability to get the results in hours for some cases.


Oh and it is 9 dead... One in my county was not added earlier. I think we have a total of 3 in my county that have died. One positive case at work is under self isolation. The nursing home in my county has 12 confirmed... Mainly the nurses (2 patients, maybe 3). So, yes it is in my neighborhood and all around me.... And I just got back from NC last week.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 09:45 PM   #143
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COVID-19 is like a watching a car crash in slow motion. All we can do is physically distance ourselves from others and wash our hands in an attempt to reduce the infection rate.

Unfortunately, it's gonna surpass 9/11 deaths and how it affects us.

Weird.
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Old March 25th, 2020, 06:08 AM   #144
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the common flu kills more than 9-11 every year
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Old March 25th, 2020, 07:10 AM   #145
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the common flu kills more than 9-11 every year
Yeah, even worse than that.
For U.S... every 3-weeks.
Globally.... every 1.5-days.

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Old March 25th, 2020, 07:37 AM   #146
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So they're giving $TRILLION$ dollars to big business. Who would've seen that coming eh?

Very few people in my area even qualifies for $1200 handout. Want to stimulate economy? Give it all to the people at bottom to spend as they wish! It's just not airlines that's hurting; most likely to go under are small local shops. Mom & Pop grocery stores on corners, coffee-shops, auto-shops, moto-shops, bicycle-shops, tire-shops, independent mechanics, car-dealers, CPA/accountants, tailors, hairdressers, small restaurants (along with wait-staff & dishwashers), travel-agents, real-estate agents, gyms, small banks, book stores, art galleries, greeting card stores, bakeries, pubs/bars, breweries, ice-cream shops, jewelry stores, clothing stores, golf courses, wine bars/tasting rooms, wineries, fishing expedition boats, hot-air balloon rides, amusement parks, construction contractors, city colleges, day-care services, pet-sitters, motels, event organizers, caterers, nurseries, freelance writers, housecleaning services, graphic designers, marketing/advertising companies, law-firms, photographers, taxi/uber/lyft drivers, phone repair shops, etc. There are way, way more businesses that are in much more dire straights than couple of airlines! Bah!

With hiding of M3 while back, all this printing of excess monies has increased inflation tremendously since. This latest round is gonna drive up cost-of-living for all of us! How many people actually get raises that at least match true inflation year after year?

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Old March 25th, 2020, 09:41 AM   #147
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^All our stores are open including resteraunts (take out only). So, maybe they need to look at each state and who is effected?
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Old March 25th, 2020, 01:29 PM   #148
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Stay at home / shelter in place requires sacrifice.

I resorted to outdoor cooking for lunch today.

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Old March 25th, 2020, 05:27 PM   #149
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Stay at home / shelter in place requires sacrifice.

I resorted to outdoor cooking for lunch today.
They told us to support the buisnesses and get take out for national takeout day.. Or whatever it was... Lol

And we have a stay home order with a "but" go out direction for excersizing and supporting buisness.

So today I did get out and ride then, like you I grilled out.
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Old March 25th, 2020, 05:59 PM   #150
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Washington today:
2588 cases (up 4.8% since yesterday)
130 deaths (up 5.7% since yesterday)
19 recoveries (to date)

I hope it's flattening out due to closing restaurants and bars and increasing social distancing on 3/16 (although official lock-down started today).


Ohio today:
704 cases (up 24.8% since yesterday)
11 deaths (up 37.5% since yesterday, includes the 1 death Snot reported last night in today's percentage)
0 recoveries (to date)


The reported cases increase with increased testing, of course. The deaths? Less so.

Maybe social distancing works for this kind of pandemic. We'll see in a few weeks...
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Old March 25th, 2020, 06:51 PM   #151
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We have 3 at work.
Now 12 deaths - 4 in my county all from nursing homes (They locked them down 1 1/2 weeks ago).

The sun was out late this afternoon, people everywhere walking, biking, playing ball, etc. I have never seen the bike path so busy (only 1 section not under water).

They said over 10k tested negitive. Most of the cases are 50-69 (40%), 8% for over 70 and 2% under 19.
16% are health care workers.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 02:28 PM   #152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snot View Post
We have 3 at work.
Now 12 deaths - 4 in my county all from nursing homes (They locked them down 1 1/2 weeks ago).

The sun was out late this afternoon, people everywhere walking, biking, playing ball, etc. I have never seen the bike path so busy (only 1 section not under water).

They said over 10k tested negitive. Most of the cases are 50-69 (40%), 8% for over 70 and 2% under 19.
16% are health care workers.
bikes are out like crazy today. I'm hoping one of these days I'll be able to hop on mine. Not sure where I would go, or how long of a ride it would be though. Traffic is only slightly down, and people are acting like idgets on the road. Even more so than normal
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Old March 26th, 2020, 03:35 PM   #153
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Sun was out until around 4 today. I moved my "home office" to the back porch. I have restrictions on teleworking so I worked on the computer in the sun and fresh air.

We now have 1 case in my town from the nursing home in Troy.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 04:43 PM   #154
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I enjoyed the sunny weather today by finishing cutting my grass and a little gardening.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 04:56 PM   #155
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Washington today:
3207 cases (up 619 since yesterday)
147 deaths (up 17 since yesterday)
19 recoveries (to date)

No flattening at all. Holy crap!
Michigan surpassed WA briefly today in total cases, but WA stormed back into 4th place with the close-of-business day count. Damn...

Ohio today:
867 cases (up 163 since yesterday)
15 deaths (up 4)
0 recoveries (to date)

Hang on to your shorts, folks!
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Old March 26th, 2020, 05:56 PM   #156
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US passed both Italy and China in cases today. Uh, I guess you'd say, we're number one? (link to Johns Hopkins data)




1,209 deaths reported in the US as of this evening since the outbreak started, >250 of them today. Over a 300M+ population, that still seems quite tiny and even quite manageable. But one of our larger hospitals nearby is saying that 50% of the patients in the hospital right now are there for COVID19. At the current growth rate, it's going to be twice that in well under a week, and things are going to get pretty interesting. NYC is seeing this first, but likely only by a couple days. Italy has been seeing between 700 - 1000 deaths per day over the past few days on a much smaller population and comparatively more available healthcare. A week from now, I'd be very surprised if the US weren't seeing > 1000 deaths per day, on its way to an even higher peak 3 weeks from now.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 06:50 PM   #157
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Does anyone know if the warmer weather we have coming will kill the virus and stop the spread? I sure hope so.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 07:07 PM   #158
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It's unknown. These types of viruses sometimes do ebb and flow with the weather, and as it warms up approaching summer they do tend to fade. We tend to see that with the flu season. But there are also very warm countries right now experiencing the spread of this virus - so it's not as if once at a certain temperature (within reason) it's impossible for it to thrive.

Here's the first article that pops up for me that says pretty much the same thing (but much more articulately).
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Old March 27th, 2020, 11:58 AM   #159
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^All our stores are open including resteraunts (take out only). So, maybe they need to look at each state and who is effected?
Problem is people without money won't go shopping or eat out. Scoped out lunch places on my way in today and every single place I frequent is closed down. All +30 outfits within walking distance.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 12:06 PM   #160
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Italy does not compare correctly to the US.

Now they are talking about stopping liquor production and sales...
Yup, for a much smaller population, A LOT more of them die every year from common cold/flue due to their much older population:

60.5m - population of Italy
61 000 - Italian deaths yearly from common cold/flu
372m - population of U.S.
65 000 - U.S. deaths yearly from common cold/flu

Even before SARS-cov2, anyone could tell Italy would be hit hard, with U.S. not far behind until later in season.
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