[kropotkin thinks...] - 2008 Brno MotoGP Race Report - Turning Point

[Ninjette Newsbot]

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Strictly speaking, all races are equal. Every race scores 25 points for the winner, 20 points for 2nd place, 16 points for 3rd, so in purely mathematical terms, they are all of equal importance.

Of course, some mathematicians would probably refute that, pointing out that 25 points in the first race of the season count for a whole lot less than 25 points in the final race of the season. After all, a win in the first race is usually little more than a sign that you've got your season off to a good start, while 25 points - or less - at the last race can be the difference between going down in the history books as World Champion and the chump who came up short. Taking these factors into account, you can be pretty sure that someone, somewhere has created a mathematical formula which perfectly encapsulates the relative importance of the points scored in each race.

But the MotoGP championship, like all motorcycle racing, is more than just a statistical exercise. Though the number of points scored may not change from one race to the next, the impact one race can have be worth double or even triple the points on offer. For example, though the difference between 1st and 2nd at the season opener is only 5 points, the race can sometimes set the tone for the rest of the season. Take 2007, when Casey Stoner and the Ducati turned up at Qatar and showed the world that what Honda and Yamaha had pinpointed as key factors in building an 800cc MotoGP bike were completely wrong, and that horsepower was still king.

The Numbers Game

It's not just early races which are important, though. Races at the end of the season can be important too. Nicky Hayden was leading the 2006 championship comfortably, until his team mate crashed into him at the penultimate round in Portugal, and seemed to gift the title to Valentino Rossi. The next race, the last of the season, Rossi returned the favor, succumbing to the pressure of a poor start and the accumulated woes of a troubled season.

The 2006 season also shows that races in mid-season can have a huge impact, far beyond the actual points available. At Laguna Seca, the final race before the summer break, Rossi suffered a broken engine, putting him out of the race which Hayden went on to win. His title hopes looked over, but 4 weeks later at Brno, the first race after the summer break, Rossi was back on the podium and back in contention, after Hayden finished off the podium for the first time in what was to become a string of difficult races.

The Agony And The Ecstacy

And some races become pivotal, the point at which a season, sometimes even an entire career, can change. Sete Gibernau, grandson of the man who founded the famous Spanish motorcycle manufacturer Bultaco, had a racing career littered with such moments. Gibernau's transformation from fancied outsider to title challenger began after the death of his team mate, Daijiro Katoh from injuries sustained in a crash in Japan. At the next race, which Gibernau won, he was a changed man, with no sign of the erratic nature which had held him back. That season, Gibernau became a focused, dedicated racer, and pushed Rossi hard for the title.

Two years later, another race changed Gibernau's season, this time for the worse. At the 2005 season opener at Jerez, after a tense battle throughout the race, Valentino Rossi dived up the inside of Gibernau into the final corner. Gibernau tried to slam the door, but it was too late. The Spaniard clashed fairings with the Italian, and ran off into the gravel. Robbed of victory in front of his home fans, and despite finishing with just 5 points fewer than Rossi, Gibernau became bitter and obsessed and was never competitive again. Sete Gibernau lost not just the race that day, he also lost the title, and started on the downhill slide which ended with his retirement.

All Change?

The previous race of the 2008 season seemed to be one of those pivotal moments. It certainly had all the key ingredients: Casey Stoner had been on an intimidating run of poles and victories, and slowly gaining ground on championship leader Valentino Rossi; and Laguna Seca was the last race before the summer break, meaning that whoever came out victorious there would carry momentum into the summer, and have the advantage once the racing resumed.

The race delivered. Casey Stoner may only have given away 5 points to Valentino Rossi, but the manner of Rossi's victory, forcing Stoner into an error after a scintillating duel for 23 laps of mortal combat, swung the season back around again. Suddenly, the unstoppable Stoner had been stopped in his tracks, and Mr Perfect had been shown to be fallible. Stoner's outburst about Rossi's tactics in parc ferme, in the press conference, and in the press afterwards all contributed to the impression that the US Grand Prix had been worth a lot more to Valentino Rossi than just the 5 points he extended his lead by.

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