October 1st, 2015, 05:43 PM | #81 |
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People suck at decisions??
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_matrix https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualit...ion_deployment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-matrix_method https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilber...ss?language=en |
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October 1st, 2015, 06:11 PM | #82 | ||
EX500 full of EX250 parts
Name: Bill
Location: Grand Rapids-ish, MI
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Quote:
Even on the "38 mile" battery of the Volt, which is designed to use the ICE on a regular basis, this guy has over 81k miles with only 140 of those on gas. He's the ideal user for a pure BEV (but he likes other things about the Volt). Even on the 60-80mi battery of a regular BEV, a large number of people could cover their regular daily driving. Some people can't reasonably get by even with the hundreds of miles of range from a Model S. It really boils down to your driving patterns, like FrugalNinja250 said. The Volt and i3 REx are in a bit of a niche in that they work as a pure EV most of the time, but are able to fall back to common gas-car mode when needed. Assuming you have pretty average driving patterns, they give you the EV experience for your regular driving, without having to deal with EV limitations for rare situations. A huge portion of the population could probably be served very well by one of these. I really do think the Volt is a great "gateway EV" and the i3 REx should be similar (just with more emphasis on the battery and less on the ICE). Quote:
The tax credits also skew the resale value. After figuring that in, the demo Volts (with a couple thousand miles on them) from the dealer where I got mine start at $22k. When you can get a titled-as-new one that cheap, it severely cuts into the value of a used one (which has a somewhat-unknown battery history).
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October 2nd, 2015, 02:31 AM | #83 |
Freedom for Germany
Location: This World
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It's fun to follow this thread.
Facts for the years 2008/2009ff are - possible vehicle capacity in production worldwide about 95 million. From all those the real sold are only around 65 million. This is the first gap. Of those sold there's max one third actually paid, the rest is on leasing and credit. The second gap. More questions? More facts are that 150 years of mobility has brought nothing new on its way. The railway still rattles on rails, the plane is still flying for hours from one continent to another with an absurd ratio of payload / weight and the cars still have 6 wheels. Stop - there are only 5, because the spare-wheel is missing now! So for better understanding there is not many more, with what one could pull the money out of the pockets from the people who can afford more (like the 3rd car, the 4th refrigerator, the 5th girl-friend, the 6th tv, ect.), everybody is full already. New borrowers are not to find any more or not that easy, so after gasoline, diesel and after then bringing all those little electronic helpers from which everybody thinks about they are needed and a car or motorcycle is not driveable without them anymore, now you're told that electricity is the future of driving - the lol can not be loud enough. Go ahead with dreaming... |
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October 2nd, 2015, 04:23 AM | #84 | |
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Quote:
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October 2nd, 2015, 04:33 AM | #85 | |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
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Quote:
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October 2nd, 2015, 05:19 AM | #86 |
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An engine stores no power. He's comparing weight per kWh potential energy stored.
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October 2nd, 2015, 05:56 AM | #87 |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
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he compared $9 of gas to a $20,000 battery
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October 2nd, 2015, 06:02 AM | #88 | |
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Read the numbers in your own quote.
Quote:
Now, before you get all mad at me, let me say: and electric motor is much more efficient at turning that stored energy in to mechanical energy than an internal combustion engine, but the gasoline is so much cheaper, lighter, easier to transport, readily available that it wins that comparison every time. Passion is good. Don't get so passionate that you blind yourself to reason. The only issue is time to refill? You yourself even mentioned the range. Don't just ignore things. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, as Frugal brought up. Some times, and electric would work for the majority of needs. But consumers typically want one vehicle for everything because costs go up big time with owning more vehicles. So that small amount of time when range is an issue is very important in the decision not to choose electric for many people, myself included. |
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October 2nd, 2015, 06:04 AM | #89 |
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And it was a legitimate comparison in terms of energy storage per volume. Battery technology still has a ways to go before it can truly compete with gasoline.
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:00 AM | #90 |
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@ninjamunky85 @choneofakind
Lets compare apples to apples but also just as unfair. The cost of a recharge $0.10 and added weight 0.00001oz
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:03 AM | #91 | |
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Quote:
Remember resale.
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:20 AM | #92 | |
Que Buenos Son!!!
Name: Ryan
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Quote:
How can you say weight is not an issue? Increased weight means deceased efficiency no matter whats powering it. As for cost of ownership how cheap is it gonna be when your battery needs replaced in eight years???
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:37 AM | #93 | |
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Quote:
battery swap is comparable to a engine swap Zero battery is just over $2000
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:39 AM | #94 | |
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Quote:
But even with that in mind, electric motors are now weightless in this comparison? To be fair one must be complete on both sides. They may be lighter than an ICE motor with all of its accessories, but nowhere near enough to make up for the difference in weights of their energy. Even with those comparatively light motors, electric vehicles of comparable performance are thousands of pounds heavier than comparable vehicles. You can also look at today's hybrids to see how it actually plays out. It turns out to be lighter, and cheaper, to include not only all of the electric propulsion components, but an additional ICE engine along with fuel, and the vehicle is still much lighter than a comparable BEV with any range at all. I also don't think we'd need to remove the cost comparison of charging the battery as unfair. It does feel good to pay so little to refill, a few cents for an electric bike, a bit more for an electric car. But one would also have to include the few thousand extra it costs for the car option, and however much one wants to cost out the upgraded charging station in the garage. Include those and divide it over mileage, and even the "few cent" recharges can be seen as incremental charges on top of the significant one.
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:49 AM | #95 |
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October 2nd, 2015, 07:55 AM | #96 |
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Of course - and what will happen over time will be bounded by physical and economic realities, not wishes.
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October 2nd, 2015, 08:09 AM | #97 | |
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October 2nd, 2015, 09:53 AM | #98 |
Wartown, USA
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When they get 200 miles at 70+mph to a charge, and I can just pull into the nearest gas station and recharge it in 1 min or less. THEN, and ONLY then would I ever consider an electric bike.
Till then...no way. |
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:18 AM | #99 |
The Corner Whisperer
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I am willing to hold out for a 15-20min charge time with a range of around 200 miles. Unless.... I am buying it for a commuting machine that fits the range/charge time limits.
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:23 AM | #100 | |
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In our lifetimes we've seen lithium battery technology completely outpace lead-acid. Remember, lithium wasn't really explored from a pure R&D point of view until the 1970's, and wasn't commercially viable until the early 1990's. It is now a fairly stable technology that exceeds lead-acid in about every way except price, and that's is falling on a daily basis. More importantly, our understanding of chemistry has increased exponentially and future battery technologies will perforce be developed faster. I see no reason why it can't roughly follow Moore's law in concept, but with somewhat slower timeframe. Gasoline was a great way to store energy in the old days when there wasn't anything better, but that was then, and today there are much more efficient technologies out there. Within the next 20-40 years I see wholesale adoption of EV technology because of the efficiency, the ability to source electrons from anywhere including non-carbon sources, and because of the long-term reliability and durability that EV offers. Hybrids are a definite link in that transition, and will get people weened off of chemical fuels. When (not if) gas hits $10 in today's dollars, a lot of folks invested in that 100 year old stagnant technology are going to be left red-faced and empty-handed. |
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:34 AM | #101 | |
Inline 4!!!
Name: Danny
Location: MA
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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...by_quarter.png Tesla actually is now bigger than Chrysler and Tesla has been around for a fraction of the amount of time Chrysler has. ^ This graph is 2 years old, but still shows a decent correlation between Tesla and other car companies. I love my gasoline powered motors, and I love slamming through gears of my manual transmission, but I also welcome the change of electric vehicles. Really the only thing stopping me from buying a Tesla is the cost.
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:36 AM | #102 |
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I think the volt and similar plug in hybrids are a great solution that give us the benefits of EV's without sacrificing the convenience of gas.
At some point will EV be viable for a lot more people? Sure! But I think it's going to have to reducing charging time significantly and improve range without requiring supercharger stations and tons of new infrastructure. We're just not there yet. Al, no offense, you're being a little close minded. I respect the passion for a cause and the interest in new tech. Really, that's something I admire because I nerd out on everything at times. I'm curious and I'd like to challenge you to a little though experiment: what's your reason for having the ninja 300 over a Zero? Think critically and tell me why. I think that will give you perspective on where we're coming from. Don't resort to emotionally charged blindness. I want an EV. BUt it doesn't make sense to me yet. I've said that before and I'll say it again. |
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:47 AM | #103 | |
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Quote:
BMW 750i is 4,225 lbs (or more, depending on options, BMW isn't clear on that) Mercedes S550 is 4,773 lbs, heavier than a base model S. Audi A8 is 4,464 to 4,806 lbs depending on options. Maserati Quattroporte 4,101 to 4,189 lbs So even taking in the most extreme comparison, the stripper Quattroporte vs the loaded Model S the weight difference is only 729 lbs, hardly the "thousands of pounds" in your post. I think you're confusing old lead-acid battery technology cars with modern lithium battery technology cars. And the Model S is faster than every single one of those other comparable cars. In fact, since the Model S with the Ludicrous Speed option is one of the quickest cars sold in the world, finding "comparable" cars is going to be pretty difficult. Here's a list on wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_acceleration Note that none of the cars quicker than the Model S are really considered practical passenger cars. The Tesla can carry groceries and up to 7 passengers (depending on options) Even the plain-Jane Model S is right up there in performance. Oh, and on the quarter mile list, the Model S P90D is in the 10s, still faster than comparable cars. |
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:58 AM | #104 | |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
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Quote:
I do not have a Zero right now because of money. The 300 I payed cash for almost 3 years ago and I did not know about the Zero. I will buy an electric bike (likely a Zero) August 2017 when my car is payed off or I would have one now. I will have free plug-in at work. edit: When I asked you to back off earlier I hoped you did not take me seriously and if you did
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October 2nd, 2015, 11:11 AM | #105 | |
EX500 full of EX250 parts
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I don't know if the fact that PLUG1N only keeps a tiny amount of gas in the car bypasses the feature, but the computer will actually run the ICE some if it detects that it's been too long on the same tank. The manual recommends using the tank up within a year of filling it. My personal record is 73 days between fillups. The current tank is at 62 days. http://www.fuelly.com/car/chevrolet/...isiBill/318496
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October 2nd, 2015, 11:32 AM | #106 | ||||
ninjette.org dude
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Quote:
Quote:
http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/a...future_battery Quote:
Quote:
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October 2nd, 2015, 11:38 AM | #107 |
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rethinking my plans for 2017
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/...chevrolet-volt
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October 2nd, 2015, 01:50 PM | #108 | |
ninjette.org dude
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These are good comparisons, wanted to credit you for looking up the details. In that heavyweight high-dollar category it's getting pretty close. The Tesla seems very heavy, but those 3 competitors are quite heavy as well. The traditionally-powered cars have significantly more range, but the Tesla has significantly better acceleration.
Scaled down a bit, it doesn't work out quite as well. The Leaf also weighs about the same as its competitors (3,300 lbs, give or take), but because of that has a range of well under 100 miles. Same with the Fiat 500e, electric spark, or essentially anything that Elon isn't selling to luxury buyers. You can't hide that much weight unless it already is a heavy car, or you choose to provide less of it to keep the weight reasonable. Many of the non-Teslas seem to have landed on a 24 kwh battery, not sure if there are tax, cost, or other parameters that point to that particular size. Quote:
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October 2nd, 2015, 03:40 PM | #109 | |
EX500 full of EX250 parts
Name: Bill
Location: Grand Rapids-ish, MI
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Quote:
Also remember that you can recharge just about anywhere, thanks to the ubiquity of electrical outlets (though not as fast as a dedicated charging station). For many people, you can charge at home while your car would normally just be sitting there anyway. Same for a lot of people at work. I tend to favor the theater/restaurant complex that has a couple charging stations, as an hour or two charging gives me a significant boost (even with the Volt's weak charger). As the infrastructure improves, you would ideally be able to plug in anywhere you park your vehicle. It won't give you a full charge, but adding a few miles at every stop can dramatically increase your total range, even if you have a relatively small battery. This article is about getting 190 electric miles out of a Volt (rated for a 35 mile range and 4 hour recharge time) in a single day with some clever charging. Road trips and long pleasure rides on a bike are still the worst-case scenario for EVs needing to recharge though. I don't want to sit at a charging station for an hour for every 100 miles I ride either.
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October 2nd, 2015, 03:41 PM | #110 | |
EX500 full of EX250 parts
Name: Bill
Location: Grand Rapids-ish, MI
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Quote:
I love my Volt, but the deck is really stacked in favor of the ICE at this point.
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October 2nd, 2015, 03:42 PM | #111 | |
EX500 full of EX250 parts
Name: Bill
Location: Grand Rapids-ish, MI
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Quote:
In case anyone hasn't seen it - What it's like to own a Tesla Model S - A cartoonist's review of his magical space car FYI, most of that stuff applies to my Volt too. The Tesla has a few extra features, but it should for 3x the price. The Model S has the highest customer satisfaction rating at Consumer Reports of any car, and the Volt is in second place. EVs inherently have some nice features that you don't even realize you dislike about ICE vehicles until they're gone. It's amazing how loud and vibrate-y regular cars feel to me now. Even when the Volt's ICE is running, it's not directly tied to wheelspeed or physically coupled to the driveline (usually), so the noise and vibration are a bit removed from the driving experience.
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October 2nd, 2015, 03:42 PM | #112 | ||
EX500 full of EX250 parts
Name: Bill
Location: Grand Rapids-ish, MI
Join Date: Jul 2012 Motorcycle(s): '18 Ninja 400 • '09 Ninja 500R (selling) • '98 VFR800 (project) • '85 Vulcan VN700 (sold) Posts: A lot.
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MOTM - Aug '15
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Quote:
Quote:
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October 2nd, 2015, 03:43 PM | #113 | ||
EX500 full of EX250 parts
Name: Bill
Location: Grand Rapids-ish, MI
Join Date: Jul 2012 Motorcycle(s): '18 Ninja 400 • '09 Ninja 500R (selling) • '98 VFR800 (project) • '85 Vulcan VN700 (sold) Posts: A lot.
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Quote:
Quote:
I assume the 24kWh is just a happy medium of performance, weight, and cost in the current environment.
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October 2nd, 2015, 04:09 PM | #114 | |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
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Location: York, Pa
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Quote:
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October 2nd, 2015, 10:06 PM | #115 |
ChocolateMilk Addict
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Location: McDonough
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WTF is a beta-max? Oh its that fluffy dude from Big Hero 6 aint it? Its all cool, you don't gotta be ashamed, he's the reason the movies famous
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October 3rd, 2015, 05:03 AM | #116 |
Freedom for Germany
Location: This World
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Here's an older, but still valid, article http://www.science20.com/science_20/...ere_stay-91403
Sorry in english I didn't find a more actual one - in Germany there are many about it. The magic word is Energy Density And like some here already said, actual an EV or Hybrid is a waste of money (but since it is not my money I don't care what others do with their own and if they throw it away). |
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October 3rd, 2015, 08:30 AM | #117 | |
Que Buenos Son!!!
Name: Ryan
Location: Grovetucky, OH
Join Date: Jun 2012 Motorcycle(s): Aprilia Shiver 750, Husaberg FE 450, Ninja 300 (sold), xr100 Posts: A lot.
MOTM - Nov '14
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Quote:
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Don't do something because it's easy,.. Do it because it's not! If you aren't going forward, then you're falling behind. "Drive it like you stole it"!!! |
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October 3rd, 2015, 08:36 AM | #118 | |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
Name: Al
Location: York, Pa
Join Date: Dec 2012 Motorcycle(s): 2013 Ninja 300..............2008 Ninja 500-sold...2009 Ninja 250-Crashed Posts: Too much.
MOTM - Sep '14
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Quote:
Google cars have logged 1.7 million miles with 11 crashes all human error. 8 are human rear ending the google car
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Keep calm and ride on -Motofool Never quit on a rainy day -ally99 |
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October 3rd, 2015, 08:47 AM | #119 |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
Name: Al
Location: York, Pa
Join Date: Dec 2012 Motorcycle(s): 2013 Ninja 300..............2008 Ninja 500-sold...2009 Ninja 250-Crashed Posts: Too much.
MOTM - Sep '14
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Sorry OP for going off topic.
I think I am going to have many choices in 2017 of e-bikes that will meet my needs for my 120 mile daily commute but Zero has a big lead and will win my cash. Time will tell.
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Keep calm and ride on -Motofool Never quit on a rainy day -ally99 |
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October 3rd, 2015, 09:09 AM | #120 |
ninjette.org certified postwhore
Name: .
Location: .
Join Date: Feb 2011 Motorcycle(s): . Posts: Too much.
MOTM - Feb '13, Feb '14
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I dread autonomous vehicles. Might as well make it wipe your ass too.
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